#2551 – Daniel Kokotajlo
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A serious AI forecast needs conditions for updating
Forecasts become narratives when every new event is interpreted as confirmation and missed expectations don't change confidence. Kokotajlo's scenario invites a more disciplined question about revision. What observations, capability benchmarks, or delays should cause forecasters to update the probability and timeline instead of simply moving the same story forward?
After Poddy editorial starter Based on selected transcript passages.
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