Poll Me Twice, Shame On Me
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High probability isn’t a promised result
Nate Silver, Clare Malone, and Galen Druke discuss FLIPR's election probabilities. A 70 percent forecast still assigns meaningful likelihood to the other outcome and shouldn't be graded as certainty. What explanation or visualization would help listeners understand that distinction before results arrive?
After Poddy editorial starter Based on the episode show notes.
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